The recent UN Report on future world population numbers have been revised upwards due to a slowdown in reductions in fertility rates.

Current fertility levels vary markedly among countries. Today, 42 per cent of the world’s population lives in low-fertility countries, that is, countries where women are not having enough children to ensure that, on average, each woman is replaced by a daughter who survives to the age of procreation. Another 40 per cent lives in intermediate-fertility countries where each woman is having, on average, between 1 and 1.5 daughters, and the remaining 18 per cent lives in high-fertility countries where the average woman has more than 1.5 daughters.

Amongst the most remarkable of the projections is Malawi with a current population of 15 million, which as a medium variant estimate will become 129 million by 2100!  There are many others – Nigeria to have a population of 750 million!

A personal comment is to wonder whether these statistics are based on statistical projects of demographic trends, or whether they factor in potential economic changes?  However it would seem to be very plain that rich countries must try not to be subsumed by their own economic concerns and pay attention to the economic welfare, social welfare and environmental consequences of this report.

http://blogs.cfr.org/coleman/2011/05/06/demography-and-destiny/?cid=soc-twitter-in-Democracy-Demography_and_destiny-050911

http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Other-Information/Press_Release_WPP2010.pdf

 

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